They only ever talk about the weather...

A week and a day on from Easter Sunday and I'm 'working from home' on campus. Torch, matches and candle at the ready for power failure and water bottles filled. The fragrant Xmas candle doing long service proclaims 'Festive Cheer' but I'm not entirely sure about that. PTC closed at 1pm for today and tomorrow because Tropical Cyclone Keni may be on the way and, as already illustrated in the previous post, there's extremely heavy rain and flooding across swathes of the land. Fiji's schools and universities are closed. TV, radio and social media full of images and warnings.

Nadi, the town of our international airport and the main hub for travel to tourist destinations has taken a bad hit. This isn't a new thing: people remember horrendous floods in 2009 and others with alarming regularity over the years since. But when Nadi gets it, the climate change and disaster management conversations turn once again to tourism and the part it possibly plays in all of this.

Come with me for a moment to Denarau Island. As Fiji Tourism describes it...

Attached to the mainland by a short causeway, Denarau is the place to be pampered. Less than 10km from Nadi, Denarau boasts eight large resorts, stunning beaches and an 18-hole championship golf course. Luxury suites, sparkling swimming pools, world-class cuisine, shopping and adventure options – Denarau has it all.

Note if you would that key piece of information, 'less than 10 km from Nadi'. 

I've only been to Denarau once, and that was up and down in a day to give a lecture about use and abuse of the Bible to prison officers from across the Pacific. They were meeting in the glitzy Sofitel. It's good that Fiji can host huge conferences like that in top class surroundings, isn't it? It's fine for Fiji to maximise all the 'benefits' that conference, tourist and visitor hospitality can bring to the economy. 

And yet....  While prison officers - in that instance - receive the very best in top notch facilities as guests at a glamorous hotel, Nadi's residents are increasingly prisoners in their own town as, with frightening regularity, waters swell, streets flood, bridges collapse and small family businesses go under. And it's worse since the coming of Denarau, some would say.

Now I'm not sufficiently schooled in the fields of climate change and disaster management to be touting a particular line here. But I've become interested in the Denarau factor and the Nadi floods over recent years. So I thought of sharing just a few observations from a 2013 research paper: Tourism Investment Choices and Flood Risk: illustrative case study on Denarau Island Resort in Fiji by Karen Bernard, United Nations Development Programme and Samantha Cook Secretariat of the Pacific Community It's in the public domain and clicking on the link above will mean you can read it in full for yourself, if you wish. They also have a helpful bibliography to other sources.

Just to say, I don't know these authors and nor do I make any claims for this being the top example of the literature surveying the topic. I simply found it helpful because it sets out some background and stats very plainly: the kind of 'academic' paper with content that fleshes out the 'ordinary' conversations all around us.

So I'll just share some extracts, with every credit to the authors cited above. SIDS, by the way, stands for Small Island Developing States. [In a different context it might be Sudden Infant Death Syndrome]. The questions included as subheadings are my only contribution.

So... how many tourists actually come to Fiji?

Tourism arrivals have increased by 115 percent between 1999 and 2010, reaching 631,838 in 2010 (Fiji Islands Bureau of Statistics - FIBOS) - a number almost equal to the entire population of Fiji, at 883,125. There was, however, a marked decline in 2000 following the coup d’état and also in in 2009 following the Nadi and Ba floods. Fiji attracts tourists from all over the world, each year on average 75 per cent of visitor arrivals are tourists equating to some 472,634 tourists who spend, on average, 9.2 days in country. 

And they come in from where?

The majority of visitors come from Australia (46%), followed by New Zealand (17%), accounting for 63 per cent of visitors. A further 10 percent come from the US and another 10 percent from Europe, the remainder originating from Asia and the rest of the world. In addition to those tourists coming on vacation, Fiji receives regular visits from cruise ships in to Suva, Lautoka and Denarau. This sees an additional 60,301 people arrive in the Fiji islands for a day trip (FIBOS). Today, 50% of the tourist arrivals in Fiji go to Denarau, many of them traveling out to the Yasawas island chain via the marina. 

Interesting. Half of Fiji's tourists go to Denarau. What does that name mean, actually?

The name "Denarau" is a shortened version of the Fijian phrase dede na raurau, which in the Nadi dialect of Fijian language translates loosely as “rubbish piling up.” Before it was developed into a tourist enclave, much of the land area in what is now Denarau was comprised of mangroves, swamps, low-lying small islands and mud flats. When floods occurred, currents routinely transported a concentration of debris and rubbish into this area, leading to the use of this phrase to refer to that spot. 

What's the commercial background to the development?

The Denarau concept was elaborated in a Master Plan outlined by an American developer in 1969. The first luxury hotel was built in 1975 (the Regent, which is now the Westin), followed by the Sheraton in 1987, and in the 1990s, a cascade of five-star accommodations including Hilton, Radisson, and Sofitel. The most accelerated development push in Denarau occurred from 1988-1993, when Japanese property developer EIE International Corporation entered the scene and undertook “major development works on the island of a scale never before seen in Fiji. This included the clearing of the balance of the 600 acres of land, the reclamation of a vast area of swamp… and $100 million (USD) spent on infrastructure.” (Tabua Investments, 2012). As de rigeur with such exclusive areas, the island resort includes a world class golf course, shopping malls, tennis courts and a bustling marina teeming with cruise ships and yachts. 

There must have been tempting investor benefits, right?

To promote the rapid expansion of this upscale tourist enclave, major international hotel chains were offered an attractive package of incentives, including tax-free status for 20 years. The rental cost of the land lease was lowered after negotiations with the Tui Nadi (chief of Nadi), taking into account the economic benefits foreseen for the local population of the anticipated tourism boom.

And what about that investment incentive that they call a SLIP?

To promote significant tourism investment, in 1996 Fiji introduced a Short Life Investment Package (SLIP) for investments of over $40 million FJD, and later the HALF SLIP for investments of $7 million FJD or more (FIRCA 2012). Clearly this considerable level of investment is accessible only to multinational companies and hotel chains. Under the SLIP, exemptions and incentives are generous, consisting of: 20-year tax holiday on the investment, duty free status on capital equipment and the importation of construction materials, as well as exemption from sales tax (VAT). For the Half SLIP these same exemptions apply for 10 years. 

What was there before Denarau?

The Denarau project spans 680 acres and entailed significant construction on a foundation of reclaimed land, taking space previously occupied by the ocean and filling this in to form a land mass through trucking in soil from the upper Nadi River basin and pouring concrete. From the nearby village of Ratabu, 2.5 million cubic meters of soil were brought in, demolishing an entire hill from that area. The coastline in this part of the country featured an abundance of mangroves, which act as a very effective natural buffer against incoming waves and provide protection against erosion, storm surge and even tsunamis. 

So those mangroves are much missed...

Many of those mangroves were old growth trees of more than 100 years, with extensive and sturdy roots. For the construction of Denarau, much of this mangrove area was removed, as these plants interfered with tourists’ access to the sea and did not mesh with the new vision of a highly manicured landscape. The Denarau brand logo features two herons, one sitting and the other poised for flight – to symbolize relaxation and activity. This reference is more historical than contemporary; with the elimination of large expanses of mangroves, herons are no longer seen in this area.

Hasn't flooding always been part of Nadi life and always will be?

The Nadi-Ba catchment area, inside which Denarau is located, has always been notoriously flood-prone, but in the last 5 years the incidence of severe floods has increased remarkably. This may be considered partially an effect of climate change, but the Denarau development can also be considered a key aggravating factor increasing flood exposure. Flooding at a level considered a 1-in-50 year event (Hay, 12 2009) occurred in this zone in 2009 and again in 2012. In 2009 an assessment conducted by the Prime Minister’s Office estimated damages due to the 2009 floods at $60 million USD, amounting to 3 percent of GDP. A total of 11,458 people were displaced and 146,725 affected (17 percent of the population) in significant ways, mainly sugar cane farmers, other farmers, small business owners and self-employed market vendors (Government of Fiji, 2009).

And surely Denarau itself suffers too, being so close to Nadi?

...even during the severe flooding recently occurring in Nadi, or during heavy cyclones, the Denarau enclave never floods. Due to the exquisite planning and engineering with which it was built, with land elevated by 2 metres and highly efficient drainage channels, it suffers only minimal damage created by high tides causing salt water inundation. However, the Nadi central business district was submerged in up to 4 metres of water during these floods, effectively blocking tourists’ access to the airport and blocking delivery of supplies to the hotels. Following the March 2012 floods, some tourists were transported to the airport by helicopter at a cost of $300 USD each, while in some locations others were delivered by boat to the airport

So what does your research conclude? What challenges have got to be faced in the light of it?

1. SIDS countries often face difficult choices on which paths to pursue towards development and the dream of prosperity. While tourism often seems a logical and profitable choice, under which SIDS can capitalize on their natural attractions, investment in this sector must be chosen and assessed carefully. 

2. In the tourism sector as in others, there are a range of options on different scales, and business models which have implications related to environmental and disaster risks. It is imperative that national governments attempt to anticipate and weigh the long term implications of these different options in regard to disaster risks – to determine whether they may be neutral or increase the risks of disaster impacts. 

3. Some of the dynamics noted in the Denarau case study include repatriation of a significant portion of the profits, and urban drift to more vulnerable sites (Nadi river basin) as people seek to seize the opportunities expected with the tourism expansion. It should be noted that tourism is a luxury item and when there is an economic downturn, as was the case following the global financial crisis, people either travel less or stay closer to home. 

4. Similarly, investors choose to reduce their net foreign assets in preference for domestic assets. These dynamics in fact increase vulnerability, which is ultimately transferred to the small business owners, hotel employees and local residents on the fringes of the land which has undergone major re-engineering to accommodate international hotel chains. 

5. All parties concur that the flooding in Nadi is expected to worsen, and some observers anticipate that Nadi town and the adjacent townships will be under water by 2030, based on extrapolation of the current trends (Buimaiono, Solomoni, 2012. 'Nadi underwater by 2030'. The Fiji Times. Suva, Fiji. 15 June 2012)

6. Under that extreme but lamentably likely scenario, international investors will be quick to cut their losses and close down operations in favor of the next island with pristine sandy beaches. The Fijian population, especially those with the fewer resources, will then be left to fend for themselves in the face of rising waters.

http://www.fijitimes.com/gallery.aspx?gallery=1644

Methodist Church In Fiji and Rotuma

54 mins · 

Bula Vinaka to all our members,

Due to the Cyclone warning, the Head Office will be closed tomorrow(10/04/18) and will resume on Wednesday(11/04/18).

Lets pray for God's protection and guidance in this time and we encourage all members to take heed of all warnings and precautionary measures.

We reaffirm the commitment of the church in offering its churches and church halls to be used as evacuation centers and to our members always be willing to lend a helping hand to others.